The Fate of Destiny 2’s Final Shape: A Critical Analysis

In the realm of Destiny 2, a recent article by Zuhaad Ali of Destiny Bulletin has sparked discussions among the community. The article claims that pre-orders for The Final Shape, the highly anticipated expansion, are significantly lower compared to previous expansions, raising concerns about the game’s future.

However, upon closer examination, the methodology employed in the article raises questions about its accuracy as a reliable metric for gauging the fate of Destiny 2. The analysis primarily relies on data from Charlemagnebot, a playerbase data-hoarding tool, to track the number of players with the emblem associated with Final Shape pre-orders.

The results indicate that the emblem count falls short of Lightfall’s alleged pre-orders and significantly lags behind Beyond Light’s, which reportedly holds the record for the highest pre-orders. This disparity has led to speculations that The Final Shape’s pre-orders are alarmingly low.

However, there are several factors that challenge the validity of this analysis. Firstly, the method of obtaining the pre-order emblem has changed in The Final Shape. Unlike previous expansions, the emblem is claimed from the Rewards kiosk rather than Rahool, and it must be actively claimed to appear in collections. This change may have affected the emblem count, potentially underrepresenting the actual number of pre-orders.

Additionally, historical data suggests that pre-orders often surge closer to the expansion’s launch date. Players who intend to purchase the expansion may delay their pre-order until shortly before its release to maximize their access to pre-order rewards. This trend could explain the apparent disparity in pre-order numbers.

Furthermore, the article acknowledges that Bungie reported a million pre-orders for The Witch Queen just weeks before its launch, highlighting the potential for a dramatic increase in pre-orders as the expansion approaches.

While the emblem-based analysis raises concerns, it’s essential to consider other factors that may have influenced pre-order numbers. Bungie’s recent layoffs and reports of revenue misses, coupled with the perceived disappointment of Lightfall, could have contributed to a decline in pre-orders for The Final Shape.

Moreover, the growing competition in the live service gaming space and the natural aging of Destiny 2 may have also played a role in the observed decline.

In conclusion, while the pre-order numbers for The Final Shape may raise some concerns, it’s crucial to approach the analysis with caution. The emblem-based methodology has limitations, and other factors may have impacted pre-order trends. Bungie’s track record of successful expansions and the potential for a surge in pre-orders closer to launch should be considered when evaluating the game’s future prospects.